A statistically significant relationship between stock to flow and market value exists. In this article i quantify scarcity using stock to flow and use stock to flow to model bitcoin s value. The rate of demand grows at the exact same pace as it did in the past the rate of inflation in usd remains the exact same pace as it did in the past bitcoin doesn t become obsolete ie new internet protocol quantum computing ethereum flipping solar flare etc.
The stock to flow model implies things remain constant. He also promised to throw and disregard his analysis. In his updated analysis called stock to flow cross s2fx model planb thinks bitcoin s ceiling price for the third halving cycle is 288 000.
Falsifying stock to flow as a model of bitcoin value is published by phraudsta. Put simply the stock to flow ratio is the amount of a commodity held in inventories divided by the amount produced annually. Driven by the idea that bitcoin acted more like a commodity than as a currency the analyst applied the model to the world s first digital currency in order to predict its price.
Btc hit 11 700 which triggered the third red dot on the stock. Published on aug 1 2020 bitcoin is looking very bullish and is now perfectly on track to 100 000 says stock to flow creator planb. Since the data points are indexed in time order it.
The original btc s2f model is a formula based on monthly s2f and price data. Bitcoin btc stock to flow s2f model was published in march 2019. However understanding the stock to flow model is essential even when there isn t a bitcoin halving event.
Earlier this year stock to flow bitcoin models became popular due to the then approaching 2020 bitcoin halving event. Other scarce assets such as gold routinely use a stock to flow model in order to calculate price changes. As such stock to flow bitcoin use cases are in fact relatively new.
A stock to flow model or s2f model is a technical tool that traders traditionally use.
Bitcoin stock to flow model. Model earlier this year 2019 there was an article written about bitcoin stock to flow model link below with matematical model used to calculate model price during the time. Model price usd exp 1 84 sf 3 36 if we put current bitcoin stock to flow value 27 into this formula we get value of 10 750 usd. That makes stock to flow ratio scarcity higher so in theory price should go up. This has held true previously in bitcoin s history.
The stock to flow line on this chart incorporates a 365 day average into the model to smooth out the changes caused in the market by the halving events.
The stock to flow line on this chart incorporates a 365 day average into the model to smooth out the changes caused in the market by the halving events. This has held true previously in bitcoin s history. That makes stock to flow ratio scarcity higher so in theory price should go up.
Model price usd exp 1 84 sf 3 36 if we put current bitcoin stock to flow value 27 into this formula we get value of 10 750 usd. Model earlier this year 2019 there was an article written about bitcoin stock to flow model link below with matematical model used to calculate model price during the time.
